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Bulls Girisim Sermayesi Yati ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

45,795.47

increased by 44,046.44

1 Week

10,028.80

increased by 8,279.77

1 Month

2,555.31

increased by 806.28

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Bulls Girisim Sermayesi Yati ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 21, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.7792
2.68***
βGARCH0.4122
6.45***
γleverage-0.5000
-1.18
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.83
λ₂forecast adj.0.1541
2.88***
λ₃tau persistence0.8459
13.79***

0.941

Persistence

11d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7792
2.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4122
6.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-1.18
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.83
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1541
2.88***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8459
13.79***

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days