V-Lab
Bannari Amman Sugars Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,166.23
increased by 298.05
1 Week
5,332.18
increased by 1,464.00
1 Month
6,507.50
increased by 2,639.32
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 197 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.7159 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3535 | 4.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6430 | 7.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.0874 | 5.60*** |
| γ2 | -2.5581 | -6.76*** |
| γ3 | 2.8674 | 6.65*** |
| γ4 | -2.1651 | -5.34*** |
| γ5 | 1.2651 | 4.96*** |
| γ6 | -0.9260 | -5.93*** |
| γ7 | 0.7715 | 5.75*** |
| γ8 | -0.6942 | -5.38*** |
| γ9 | 0.6045 | 4.45*** |
| γ10 | -0.2310 | -1.22 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
197 days
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