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Bnp Paribas Bank Polska Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

10,694.45

increased by 2,407.57

1 Week

7,424.29

decreased by 862.59

1 Month

5,341.76

decreased by 2,945.12

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bnp Paribas Bank Polska Sa ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 25672 trading days (~101.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8398
0.46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2815
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7184
0.04
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.4766
-0.01
γ22.0933
0.04
γ3-3.4969
-1.69*
γ42.5325
0.36
γ5-2.1126
-1.17
γ62.8136
1.16
γ7-1.1190
-0.17
γ8-3.9526
-0.23
γ910.8797
0.27

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

25672 days