V-Lab
Bnp Paribas Bank Polska Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
10,694.45
increased by 2,407.57
1 Week
7,424.29
decreased by 862.59
1 Month
5,341.76
decreased by 2,945.12
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 25672 trading days (~101.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8398 | 0.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2815 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7184 | 0.04 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.4766 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 2.0933 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -3.4969 | -1.69* |
| γ4 | 2.5325 | 0.36 |
| γ5 | -2.1126 | -1.17 |
| γ6 | 2.8136 | 1.16 |
| γ7 | -1.1190 | -0.17 |
| γ8 | -3.9526 | -0.23 |
| γ9 | 10.8797 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
25672 days
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