V-Lab
Banco Nacional DE Credito CA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
9,770.21
increased by 2,842.38
1 Week
5,468.66
decreased by 1,459.17
1 Month
4,742.82
decreased by 2,185.01
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0216 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1793 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8206 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 4.0664 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -15.7071 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 28.3809 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -26.9195 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 17.6090 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -14.3033 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.5708 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 12.7986 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | -7.7144 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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