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Banco Nacional DE Credito CA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
18,074.28
1 Week
11,287.78
1 Month
10,011.26
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2239 trading days (~8.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2818 | 8.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8204 | 60.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2050 | -4.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2,916,687.0000 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2239 days
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