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Banco Nacional DE Credito CA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

18,074.28

increased by 4,422.52

1 Week

11,287.78

decreased by 2,363.98

1 Month

10,011.26

decreased by 3,640.50

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Banco Nacional DE Credito CA ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 5, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2239 trading days (~8.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2818
8.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8204
60.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2050
-4.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2,916,687.0000

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2239 days