V-Lab
Bintang Mitra Semestaraya Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
7,326.84
increased by 5,981.27
1 Week
2,470.69
increased by 1,125.12
1 Month
1,762.24
increased by 416.67
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 275 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2087 | 3.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1232 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8743 | 21.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.2107 | -0.78 |
| γ2 | 0.4691 | 0.22 |
| γ3 | 2.6663 | 2.53** |
| γ4 | -5.3620 | -3.81*** |
| γ5 | 6.5319 | 3.03*** |
| γ6 | -5.7400 | -2.72*** |
| γ7 | 4.2611 | 2.43** |
| γ8 | -0.7420 | -0.49 |
| γ9 | -1.5922 | -1.23 |
| γ10 | 0.2435 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
275 days
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