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Bintang Mitra Semestaraya Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

7,326.84

increased by 5,981.27

1 Week

2,470.69

increased by 1,125.12

1 Month

1,762.24

increased by 416.67

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bintang Mitra Semestaraya ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 21, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 275 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2087
3.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1232
3.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8743
21.94***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.2107
-0.78
γ20.4691
0.22
γ32.6663
2.53**
γ4-5.3620
-3.81***
γ56.5319
3.03***
γ6-5.7400
-2.72***
γ74.2611
2.43**
γ8-0.7420
-0.49
γ9-1.5922
-1.23
γ100.2435
0.10

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

275 days