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Bintang Mitra Semestaraya ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

18,173.70

increased by 16,437.91

1 Week

4,707.90

increased by 2,972.11

1 Month

2,309.43

increased by 573.64

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bintang Mitra Semestaraya ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 21, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3197
0.16
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6570
44.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3197
-0.08
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.0454
0.18
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0933
0.17
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9067
38.54***

Persistence:

0.817

Half-life:

3 days