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Biafo Industries Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

696.76

decreased by 15.85

1 Week

703.13

decreased by 9.48

1 Month

985.79

increased by 273.18

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Biafo Industries Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 25, 2003 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7696
0.24
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0746
0.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9254
0.44
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-2.1334
-0.03
γ26.3644
0.04
γ3-6.0555
-0.08
γ41.5437
0.02
γ50.3331
0.00
γ6-0.3421
-0.07
γ70.7766
0.09
γ8-1.1383
-0.22
γ90.8097
0.04

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

115524 days