V-Lab
Biafo Industries Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
649.71
increased by 25.90
1 Week
639.76
increased by 15.95
1 Month
848.84
increased by 225.03
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2003 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3983 trading days (~15.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0873 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1626 | 7.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8372 | 39.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1344 | 0.28 |
| γ2 | 0.5428 | 0.87 |
| γ3 | -5.1975 | -5.43*** |
| γ4 | 11.2155 | 4.77*** |
| γ5 | -10.1775 | -4.58*** |
| γ6 | 4.4315 | 5.44*** |
| γ7 | -2.1266 | -5.06*** |
| γ8 | 2.3138 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3983 days
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