Big Digital Energy Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
88,318.27
decreased by 7,314.49
1 Week
82,447.78
decreased by 13,184.98
1 Month
67,183.90
decreased by 28,448.86
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6867 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1694 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8306 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -25.7202 | |
| γ2 | 40.3929 | |
| γ3 | -24.3652 | |
| γ4 | 11.2225 | |
| γ5 | 2.7092 | |
| γ6 | -8.1642 | |
| γ7 | 6.6928 | |
| γ8 | -3.8221 | |
| γ9 | 1.0768 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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