V-Lab
Big Digital Energy Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
127,295.90
decreased by 3,507.30
1 Week
113,038.51
decreased by 17,764.69
1 Month
93,352.64
decreased by 37,450.56
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2012 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6915 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1691 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8309 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -25.5928 | |
| γ2 | 40.3477 | |
| γ3 | -24.5847 | |
| γ4 | 11.5312 | |
| γ5 | 2.4194 | |
| γ6 | -8.0642 | |
| γ7 | 6.8775 | |
| γ8 | -4.2674 | |
| γ9 | 1.8126 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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