V-Lab
Big Digital Energy Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
124,293.50
decreased by 2,677.70
1 Week
131,303.94
increased by 4,332.74
1 Month
165,226.29
increased by 38,255.09
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 22, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7151 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1673 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8327 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -25.1350 | |
| γ2 | 40.1103 | |
| γ3 | -25.2352 | |
| γ4 | 12.5458 | |
| γ5 | 1.3977 | |
| γ6 | -7.6706 | |
| γ7 | 7.4586 | |
| γ8 | -5.6694 | |
| γ9 | 3.0961 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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