V-Lab
Bairaha Farms Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,064.57
increased by 2,578.53
1 Week
1,809.24
increased by 323.20
1 Month
1,290.43
decreased by 195.61
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 11, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 447 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2462 | 4.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1500 | 6.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8485 | 34.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2915 | 0.62 |
| γ2 | -1.3110 | -1.82* |
| γ3 | 2.7328 | 6.48*** |
| γ4 | -3.7179 | -12.27*** |
| γ5 | 3.8657 | 8.84*** |
| γ6 | -3.7353 | -7.19*** |
| γ7 | 3.8305 | 5.22*** |
| γ8 | -4.3803 | -4.43*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
447 days
Other Bairaha Farms Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities