V-Lab
Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
3,147.19
increased by 436.66
1 Week
3,048.46
increased by 337.93
1 Month
1,837.51
decreased by 873.02
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0735 | 1.84* |
| αARCH | 0.5875 | 4.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3680 | 4.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4434 | 1.74* |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0735 | 1.84* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5875 | 4.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3680 | 4.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4434 | 1.74* |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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