V-Lab
Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
819.36
decreased by 494.03
1 Week
1,017.06
decreased by 296.33
1 Month
826.13
decreased by 487.26
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 10:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0885 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5940 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3621 | 4.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3225 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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