Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
5,046.37
increased by 2,522.68
1 Week
3,923.88
increased by 1,400.19
1 Month
3,323.57
increased by 799.88
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2023 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0545 | 1.82* |
| αARCH | 0.5835 | 4.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3760 | 4.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4728 | 1.86* |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0545 | 1.82* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5835 | 4.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3760 | 4.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4728 | 1.86* |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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