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Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

921.10

decreased by 390.57

1 Week

1,006.47

decreased by 305.20

1 Month

800.80

decreased by 510.87

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 10:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 8, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 49% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.33**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3265
10.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5938
29.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1593
2.99***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-