V-Lab
British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,170.39
decreased by 98.84
1 Week
1,414.80
increased by 145.57
1 Month
1,162.17
decreased by 107.06
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8048 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0732 | 5.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7719 | 13.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1527 | 4.99*** |
| γ2 | -0.3077 | -6.59*** |
| γ3 | 0.2789 | 5.41*** |
| γ4 | -0.1569 | -2.91*** |
| γ5 | 0.0520 | 1.14 |
| γ6 | -0.0649 | -1.64 |
| γ7 | -0.0401 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
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