V-Lab
British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1,080.16
decreased by 28.53
1 Week
1,189.56
increased by 80.87
1 Month
1,638.07
increased by 529.38
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8158 | 5.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0732 | 5.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7719 | 13.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1554 | 5.06*** |
| γ2 | -0.3120 | -6.60*** |
| γ3 | 0.2807 | 5.36*** |
| γ4 | -0.1570 | -2.87*** |
| γ5 | 0.0520 | 1.13 |
| γ6 | -0.0642 | -1.62 |
| γ7 | -0.0404 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
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