British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
2,023.28
1 Week
2,175.97
1 Month
2,293.92
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0727 | 0.83 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7839 | 18.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2003 | 1.70* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0446 | 1.26 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9554 | 23.49*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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