How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	116
αARCH	0.0729	5.41***
βGARCH	0.7830	25.64***
γleverage	0.2021	4.82***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0965	0.00
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0447	2.32**
λ₃tau persistence	0.9553	50.70***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	116
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0729	5.41***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7830	25.64***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.2021	4.82***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0965	0.00
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0447	2.32**
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9553	50.70***

V-Lab

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Analyses