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Bali Towerindo Sentra Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

17,093.81

increased by 10,673.93

1 Week

6,801.71

increased by 381.83

1 Month

4,313.14

decreased by 2,106.74

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:53 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bali Towerindo Sentra ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 13, 2014 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8586
1.62
αARCH0.2961
3.20***
βGARCH0.6586
8.58***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.7001
-2.05**
γ20.4122
0.28
γ36.6227
5.59***
γ4-11.7726
-15.64***
γ511.3018
12.75***
γ6-7.3011
-6.02***
γ72.9516
2.41**
γ80.3070
0.30

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8586
1.62
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2961
3.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6586
8.58***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.7001
-2.05**
γ20.4122
0.28
γ36.6227
5.59***
γ4-11.7726
-15.64***
γ511.3018
12.75***
γ6-7.3011
-6.02***
γ72.9516
2.41**
γ80.3070
0.30

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days