V-Lab
Bali Towerindo Sentra Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7,985.96
increased by 5,131.19
1 Week
3,651.15
increased by 796.38
1 Month
3,077.76
increased by 222.99
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 13, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 68 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0607 | 1.91* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2047 | 3.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7851 | 15.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.7571 | -1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.2374 | -0.10 |
| γ3 | 8.2065 | 5.40*** |
| γ4 | -13.1302 | -13.10*** |
| γ5 | 11.9010 | 7.34*** |
| γ6 | -7.2562 | -3.47*** |
| γ7 | 2.6143 | 1.52 |
| γ8 | -0.5764 | -0.31 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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