Bali Towerindo Sentra Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
17,093.81
increased by 10,673.93
1 Week
6,801.71
increased by 381.83
1 Month
4,313.14
decreased by 2,106.74
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 02:53 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 13, 2014 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8586 | 1.62 |
| αARCH | 0.2961 | 3.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6586 | 8.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.7001 | -2.05** |
| γ2 | 0.4122 | 0.28 |
| γ3 | 6.6227 | 5.59*** |
| γ4 | -11.7726 | -15.64*** |
| γ5 | 11.3018 | 12.75*** |
| γ6 | -7.3011 | -6.02*** |
| γ7 | 2.9516 | 2.41** |
| γ8 | 0.3070 | 0.30 |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8586 | 1.62 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2961 | 3.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6586 | 8.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.7001 | -2.05** |
| γ2 | 0.4122 | 0.28 |
| γ3 | 6.6227 | 5.59*** |
| γ4 | -11.7726 | -15.64*** |
| γ5 | 11.3018 | 12.75*** |
| γ6 | -7.3011 | -6.02*** |
| γ7 | 2.9516 | 2.41** |
| γ8 | 0.3070 | 0.30 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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