V-Lab
Balco Group Ab (Publ) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
96,679.88
increased by 8,439.22
1 Week
93,052.92
increased by 4,812.26
1 Month
106,591.60
increased by 18,350.94
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2017 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9464 | 6.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0971 | 6.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8851 | 43.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0425 | 3.64*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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