Balco Group Ab (Publ) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026
1 Day
107,544.00
increased by 999.20
1 Week
111,619.48
increased by 5,074.68
1 Month
138,551.58
increased by 32,006.78
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 09:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2017 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9084 | 6.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0993 | 6.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8823 | 43.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0391 | 3.72*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9084 | 6.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 6.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8823 | 43.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0391 | 3.72*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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