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Balco Group Ab (Publ) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

132,405.50

decreased by 12,087.50

1 Week

141,278.24

decreased by 3,214.76

1 Month

149,208.48

increased by 4,715.48

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Balco Group Ab (Publ) ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 2017 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9308
6.07***
αARCH0.0989
6.18***
βGARCH0.8829
43.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0416
3.80***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9308
6.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0989
6.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8829
43.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0416
3.80***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days