V-Lab
Balco Group Ab (Publ) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
104,283.70
decreased by 5,877.80
1 Week
115,681.20
increased by 5,519.70
1 Month
188,049.28
increased by 77,887.78
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9589 | 6.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0932 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8897 | 44.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0458 | 3.77*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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