V-Lab
Atlas Menkul Kiymetler Yatir Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3,207.21
decreased by 480.97
1 Week
3,976.70
increased by 288.52
1 Month
4,035.88
increased by 347.70
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 28, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 251 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.4969 | 3.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1722 | 7.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8250 | 36.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.1295 | -12.77*** |
| γ2 | 0.2867 | 10.29*** |
| γ3 | -0.2813 | -6.47*** |
| γ4 | 0.3000 | 5.13*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
251 days
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