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Aurelius Technologies Berhad Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

26,295.59

decreased by 2,573.88

1 Week

25,656.09

decreased by 3,213.38

1 Month

25,349.18

decreased by 3,520.29

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Aurelius Technologies Berhad ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7492
6.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1939
5.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7613
16.41***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0847
-1.73*

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days