Aurelius Technologies Berhad Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
26,295.59
decreased by 2,573.88
1 Week
25,656.09
decreased by 3,213.38
1 Month
25,349.18
decreased by 3,520.29
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7492 | 6.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1939 | 5.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7613 | 16.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0847 | -1.73* |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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