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Aurelius Technologies Berhad Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

15,331.34

decreased by 1,849.99

1 Week

17,689.04

increased by 507.71

1 Month

23,815.76

increased by 6,634.43

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Aurelius Technologies Berhad ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2021 to Aug 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7344
6.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1983
5.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7563
16.14***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1057
-2.32**

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days