V-Lab
Aurelius Technologies Berhad ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
14,802.64
1 Week
16,764.46
1 Month
20,751.22
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2021 to Aug 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10119 trading days (~40.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 253% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1493 | 1.77* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6619 | 44.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3774 | 2.41** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.4146 | 0.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 1.82* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
10119 days
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