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Aurelius Technologies Berhad ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

14,802.64

decreased by 1,337.54

1 Week

16,764.46

increased by 624.28

1 Month

20,751.22

increased by 4,611.04

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Aurelius Technologies Berhad ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 16, 2021 to Aug 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10119 trading days (~40.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 253% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1493
1.77*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6619
44.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3774
2.41**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

8.4146
0.04
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
1.82*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

10119 days