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Aspen Aerogels Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

6,158.07

decreased by 384.20

1 Week

6,435.58

decreased by 106.69

1 Month

5,636.73

decreased by 905.54

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Aspen Aerogels Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2014 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9633
6.42***
αARCH0.1224
2.21**
βGARCH0.8776
15.85***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0393
0.31

1.000

Persistence

86643d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9633
6.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1224
2.21**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8776
15.85***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0393
0.31

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days