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Ardmore Shipping Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

1,183.42

increased by 181.13

1 Week

1,144.10

increased by 141.81

1 Month

1,654.81

increased by 652.52

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ardmore Shipping Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 1, 2013 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2957
5.99***
αARCH0.1061
9.84***
βGARCH0.8861
81.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0436
-4.41***

0.992

Persistence

88d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2957
5.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1061
9.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8861
81.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0436
-4.41***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

88 days