V-Lab
Ardmore Shipping Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
1,882.70
decreased by 54.49
1 Week
2,124.92
increased by 187.73
1 Month
2,239.51
increased by 302.32
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3022 | 6.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1043 | 9.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8884 | 81.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0429 | -4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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