V-Lab
Ardmore Shipping Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1,183.42
increased by 181.13
1 Week
1,144.10
increased by 141.81
1 Month
1,654.81
increased by 652.52
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 2013 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2957 | 5.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.1061 | 9.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8861 | 81.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0436 | -4.41*** |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2957 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1061 | 9.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8861 | 81.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0436 | -4.41*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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