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V-Lab

Arab Sea Information System Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026

1 Day

7,630.09

increased by 1,043.47

1 Week

6,920.52

increased by 333.90

1 Month

5,653.30

decreased by 933.32

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Arab Sea Information System ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 15, 2017 to Jul 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1954
1.10
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2386
8.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7003
20.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-13.1923
-2.64***
γ216.9598
2.51**
γ3-8.0523
-3.14***
γ48.6688
6.05***
γ5-4.7880
-4.62***
γ60.3172
0.33
γ70.3506
0.36
γ8-0.2917
-0.30
γ90.4034
0.39
γ10-1.2554
-0.99

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days