V-Lab
Arab Sea Information System Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
7,630.09
increased by 1,043.47
1 Week
6,920.52
increased by 333.90
1 Month
5,653.30
decreased by 933.32
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 15, 2017 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1954 | 1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2386 | 8.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7003 | 20.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -13.1923 | -2.64*** |
| γ2 | 16.9598 | 2.51** |
| γ3 | -8.0523 | -3.14*** |
| γ4 | 8.6688 | 6.05*** |
| γ5 | -4.7880 | -4.62*** |
| γ6 | 0.3172 | 0.33 |
| γ7 | 0.3506 | 0.36 |
| γ8 | -0.2917 | -0.30 |
| γ9 | 0.4034 | 0.39 |
| γ10 | -1.2554 | -0.99 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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