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Arab Sea Information System Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026

1 Day

9,196.28

increased by 1,277.30

1 Week

8,439.99

increased by 521.01

1 Month

5,883.73

decreased by 2,035.25

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Arab Sea Information System ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 15, 2017 to Jul 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0082
3.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8932
178.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1973
3.62***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days