V-Lab
Arab Sea Information System Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
9,196.28
1 Week
8,439.99
1 Month
5,883.73
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 15, 2017 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0082 | 3.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8932 | 178.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1973 | 3.62*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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