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Anya Polytech & Fertilizers Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

96,558.69

decreased by 23,250.71

1 Week

103,219.03

decreased by 16,590.37

1 Month

81,955.01

decreased by 37,854.39

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Anya Polytech & Fertilizers ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4496
2.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2385
3.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6837
7.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.5674
-0.53

Persistence:

0.922

Half-life:

9 days