V-Lab
Anya Polytech & Fertilizers Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
42,411.75
decreased by 11,634.89
1 Week
52,549.57
decreased by 1,497.07
1 Month
71,082.22
increased by 17,035.58
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5211 trading days (~20.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8445 | 7.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2871 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7128 | 8.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -5.0018 | -1.35 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5211 days
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