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Anya Polytech & Fertilizers Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

26,582.15

decreased by 5,654.58

1 Week

42,290.74

increased by 10,054.01

1 Month

48,179.33

increased by 15,942.60

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Anya Polytech & Fertilizers ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 16503 trading days (~65.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8263
4.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2954
0.25
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7045
0.59
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-6.6186
-0.36

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

16503 days