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Anya Polytech & Fertilizers Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

42,411.75

decreased by 11,634.89

1 Week

52,549.57

decreased by 1,497.07

1 Month

71,082.22

increased by 17,035.58

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Anya Polytech & Fertilizers ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5211 trading days (~20.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8445
7.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2871
3.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7128
8.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-5.0018
-1.35

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

5211 days