V-Lab
Anya Polytech & Fertilizers Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
96,558.69
decreased by 23,250.71
1 Week
103,219.03
decreased by 16,590.37
1 Month
81,955.01
decreased by 37,854.39
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4496 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2385 | 3.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6837 | 7.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.5674 | -0.53 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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