Anya Polytech & Fertilizers Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
26,582.15
decreased by 5,654.58
1 Week
42,290.74
increased by 10,054.01
1 Month
48,179.33
increased by 15,942.60
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 16503 trading days (~65.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8263 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2954 | 0.25 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7045 | 0.59 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -6.6186 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
16503 days
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