V-Lab
Almasar Alshamil Education Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
9,750.21
increased by 6,054.28
1 Week
4,980.18
increased by 1,284.25
1 Month
3,491.34
decreased by 204.59
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8771 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2837 | 3.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5906 | 3.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -8.5364 | -1.91* |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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