V-Lab
Almasar Alshamil Education Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
4,222.85
increased by 201.92
1 Week
4,566.87
increased by 545.94
1 Month
5,763.65
increased by 1,742.72
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8627 | 5.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.2861 | 3.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5974 | 5.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3067 | -0.56 |
0.883
Persistence6d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8627 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2861 | 3.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5974 | 5.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3067 | -0.56 |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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