V-Lab
Almasar Alshamil Education Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
10,871.34
1 Week
5,270.77
1 Month
3,591.53
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 1, 2025 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 103% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.53 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1472 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7772 | 61.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1512 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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