V-Lab
Allfunds Group Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,710.26
decreased by 234.18
1 Week
2,920.12
decreased by 24.32
1 Month
3,214.95
increased by 270.51
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4030 | 4.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.0891 | 5.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8965 | 53.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1367 | -3.28*** |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4030 | 4.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0891 | 5.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8965 | 53.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1367 | -3.28*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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