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Allfunds Group Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

2,710.26

decreased by 234.18

1 Week

2,920.12

decreased by 24.32

1 Month

3,214.95

increased by 270.51

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Allfunds Group Limited ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 23, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4030
4.90***
αARCH0.0891
5.89***
βGARCH0.8965
53.83***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1367
-3.28***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4030
4.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0891
5.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8965
53.83***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1367
-3.28***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days