V-Lab
Allfunds Group Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
5,515.34
increased by 2,105.13
1 Week
3,483.00
increased by 72.79
1 Month
2,703.67
decreased by 706.54
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4585 | 5.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0866 | 5.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8962 | 52.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1376 | -3.50*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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