V-Lab
Allfunds Group Limited Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
5,079.90
increased by 1,224.52
1 Week
3,531.64
decreased by 323.74
1 Month
2,831.63
decreased by 1,023.75
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 737 trading days (~2.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 98% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.14 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 10.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9177 | 269.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0534 | 4.15*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
737 days
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