V-Lab
Allfunds Group Limited Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,964.18
decreased by 197.09
1 Week
3,187.18
increased by 25.91
1 Month
3,361.12
increased by 199.85
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 23, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1020 trading days (~4.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1020 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.27 |
| αARCH | 0.0538 | 2.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9167 | 65.97*** |
| γleverage | 0.0577 | 1.16 |
0.999
Persistence1020d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0538 | 2.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9167 | 65.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0577 | 1.16 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1020 days
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