V-Lab
Al Kathiri Holding Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
7,526.19
increased by 2,367.21
1 Week
5,387.61
increased by 228.63
1 Month
3,134.34
decreased by 2,024.64
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 1, 2017 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.2406 | 2.37** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2271 | 4.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6015 | 9.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.6836 | -2.45** |
| γ2 | 3.1561 | 2.96*** |
| γ3 | -0.5959 | -0.95 |
| γ4 | -2.0728 | -3.36*** |
| γ5 | 2.3261 | 3.74*** |
| γ6 | -2.4657 | -4.97*** |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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