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Al Kathiri Holding Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026

1 Day

7,526.19

increased by 2,367.21

1 Week

5,387.61

increased by 228.63

1 Month

3,134.34

decreased by 2,024.64

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Al Kathiri Holding ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 1, 2017 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.2406
2.37**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2271
4.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6015
9.50***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-1.6836
-2.45**
γ23.1561
2.96***
γ3-0.5959
-0.95
γ4-2.0728
-3.36***
γ52.3261
3.74***
γ6-2.4657
-4.97***

Persistence:

0.829

Half-life:

4 days