V-Lab
Abans Financial Services Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
8,046.76
increased by 6,172.36
1 Week
2,869.95
increased by 995.55
1 Month
2,446.41
increased by 572.01
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 23, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5985 | 0.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3581 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6419 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.1354 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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