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Abans Financial Services Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

8,046.76

increased by 6,172.36

1 Week

2,869.95

increased by 995.55

1 Month

2,446.41

increased by 572.01

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Abans Financial Services Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 23, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5985
0.12
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3581
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6419
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.1354
-0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days