V-Lab
Aeroflex Neu Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
10,072.20
increased by 4,752.42
1 Week
4,914.77
decreased by 405.01
1 Month
3,676.20
decreased by 1,643.58
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2023 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1269 trading days (~5.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2101 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2470 | 8.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7525 | 26.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.6215 | -2.22** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1269 days
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