V-Lab
Adtran Networks SE Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12,954.30
decreased by 380.69
1 Week
13,780.33
increased by 445.34
1 Month
19,282.84
increased by 5,947.85
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9881 | 0.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1171 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8829 | 0.08 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0098 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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