V-Lab
Adtran Networks SE ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,815.45
1 Week
5,666.51
1 Month
10,577.24
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 30, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 541 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0958 | 31.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9039 | 271.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0021 | -1.63 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 91,082.7500 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
541 days
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