V-Lab
Servair Abidjan Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2,635.06
increased by 1,020.91
1 Week
1,825.58
increased by 211.43
1 Month
1,766.18
increased by 152.03
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2012 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8449 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0219 | 2.57** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9593 | 43.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.5136 | -0.80 |
| γ2 | 0.5416 | 0.57 |
| γ3 | 1.3452 | 2.39** |
| γ4 | -2.6412 | -4.61*** |
| γ5 | 1.6027 | 2.16** |
| γ6 | -0.1991 | -0.17 |
| γ7 | -1.0953 | -0.67 |
| γ8 | 1.5209 | 1.09 |
| γ9 | -1.2537 | -0.83 |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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