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V-Lab

Servair Abidjan Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

2,635.06

increased by 1,020.91

1 Week

1,825.58

increased by 211.43

1 Month

1,766.18

increased by 152.03

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Servair Abidjan ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2012 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8449
3.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0219
2.57**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9593
43.78***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.5136
-0.80
γ20.5416
0.57
γ31.3452
2.39**
γ4-2.6412
-4.61***
γ51.6027
2.16**
γ6-0.1991
-0.17
γ7-1.0953
-0.67
γ81.5209
1.09
γ9-1.2537
-0.83

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days