Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Servair Abidjan ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

3,362.75

increased by 84.39

1 Week

3,431.40

increased by 153.04

1 Month

4,207.70

increased by 929.34

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Servair Abidjan ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2012 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0662
4.09***
βGARCH0.9585
179.19***
γleverage-0.0662
-3.27***
λ₁tau intercept0.0288
0.17
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9841
75.34***

0.992

Persistence

82d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0662
4.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9585
179.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0662
-3.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0288
0.17
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9841
75.34***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days