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Allied Gold Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

1,197.88

decreased by 109.31

1 Week

1,182.85

decreased by 124.34

1 Month

856.57

decreased by 450.62

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:57 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Allied Gold Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 11, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 64 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6732
3.74***
αARCH0.1851
6.40***
βGARCH0.8041
27.03***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.8428
-2.76***

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6732
3.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1851
6.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8041
27.03***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.8428
-2.76***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days