V-Lab
Allied Gold Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
842.36
decreased by 149.61
1 Week
928.27
decreased by 63.70
1 Month
736.39
decreased by 255.58
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 11, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2909 | 0.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1763 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8237 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1944 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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