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Allied Gold Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

772.80

decreased by 120.60

1 Week

853.85

decreased by 39.55

1 Month

701.41

decreased by 191.99

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Allied Gold Corp ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 11, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 69% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8914
4.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1238
14.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8335
153.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0854
7.97***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days