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Aarvi Encon Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

5,124.44

increased by 1,355.13

1 Week

5,030.42

increased by 1,261.11

1 Month

6,516.15

increased by 2,746.84

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Aarvi Encon Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5489
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3370
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6630
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ15.1159
0.00
γ2-27.0642
0.00
γ349.0143
0.00
γ4-34.8029
0.00
γ55.1707
0.00
γ62.4204
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

77016 days