V-Lab
Aarvi Encon Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,124.44
increased by 1,355.13
1 Week
5,030.42
increased by 1,261.11
1 Month
6,516.15
increased by 2,746.84
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5489 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3370 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6630 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 5.1159 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -27.0642 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 49.0143 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -34.8029 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 5.1707 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 2.4204 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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