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V-Lab

Aarvi Encon Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

7,674.92

increased by 4,779.94

1 Week

5,478.19

increased by 2,583.21

1 Month

8,364.78

increased by 5,469.80

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Aarvi Encon Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 863 trading days (~3.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.8987
0.52
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3505
1.34
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-0.17
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.8062
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.06
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999
15.75***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

863 days