V-Lab
Aarvi Encon Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
7,674.92
1 Week
5,478.19
1 Month
8,364.78
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2017 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 863 trading days (~3.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8987 | 0.52 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3505 | 1.34 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -0.17 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.8062 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 15.75*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
863 days
Other Aarvi Encon Ltd Analyses
Other ILLIQ-MFMEM Analyses on International Equities