Skip to main content
V-Lab

Ayyan Investment Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

3,777.88

decreased by 445.10

1 Week

4,250.13

increased by 27.15

1 Month

5,045.38

increased by 822.40

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ayyan Investment Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 12, 2001 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 322 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7755
3.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1494
2.43**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8484
13.51***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0021
0.46

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

322 days