V-Lab
Ayyan Investment Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
3,777.88
decreased by 445.10
1 Week
4,250.13
increased by 27.15
1 Month
5,045.38
increased by 822.40
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2001 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 322 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7755 | 3.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1494 | 2.43** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8484 | 13.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0021 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
322 days
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