V-Lab
Ayyan Investment Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
4,516.60
decreased by 450.44
1 Week
4,709.31
decreased by 257.73
1 Month
5,433.42
increased by 466.38
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2001 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 309% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0549 | 4.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8540 | 70.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1695 | 25.32*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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