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Ayyan Investment Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

4,516.60

decreased by 450.44

1 Week

4,709.31

decreased by 257.73

1 Month

5,433.42

increased by 466.38

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ayyan Investment Co ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 12, 2001 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 309% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0549
4.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8540
70.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1695
25.32***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

110 days