V-Lab
Kyoto Hotel Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5,630.52
increased by 1,255.87
1 Week
4,686.13
increased by 311.48
1 Month
4,455.39
increased by 80.74
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 386 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2707 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0881 | 9.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9101 | 91.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0115 | -2.31** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
386 days
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