V-Lab
Axis Consulting Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
14,076.03
increased by 10,562.15
1 Week
5,952.24
increased by 2,438.36
1 Month
5,745.91
increased by 2,232.03
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 27, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 34657 trading days (~137.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9844 | 0.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2241 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7759 | 0.08 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -4.0873 | -0.10 |
| γ2 | 5.8645 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
34657 days
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