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Axis Consulting Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

14,076.03

increased by 10,562.15

1 Week

5,952.24

increased by 2,438.36

1 Month

5,745.91

increased by 2,232.03

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Axis Consulting Corporation ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 34657 trading days (~137.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9844
0.12
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2241
0.02
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7759
0.08
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-4.0873
-0.10
γ25.8645
0.16

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

34657 days