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Axis Consulting Corporation Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

6,147.24

increased by 4,251.86

1 Week

3,006.23

increased by 1,110.85

1 Month

3,194.51

increased by 1,299.13

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Axis Consulting Corporation ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 27, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3466
12.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0921
9.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9016
151.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0125
1.16

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-