V-Lab
Project Holdings Inc /Japan Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
7,280.24
increased by 1,642.90
1 Week
6,541.63
increased by 904.29
1 Month
7,961.14
increased by 2,323.80
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2849 | 3.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1785 | 3.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7302 | 11.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.5521 | 3.24*** |
| γ2 | -1.1787 | -3.87*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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