V-Lab
Yutaka Trusty Securities Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
931.24
increased by 47.56
1 Week
866.95
decreased by 16.73
1 Month
845.82
decreased by 37.86
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6518 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1407 | 12.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8427 | 70.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.3514 | -7.78*** |
| γ2 | 0.5838 | 7.92*** |
| γ3 | -0.4110 | -6.22*** |
| γ4 | 0.2202 | 3.43*** |
| γ5 | 0.0438 | 0.68 |
| γ6 | -0.3238 | -3.83*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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