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Yutaka Trusty Securities Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

931.24

increased by 47.56

1 Week

866.95

decreased by 16.73

1 Month

845.82

decreased by 37.86

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:43 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Yutaka Trusty Securities Co ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 30, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6518
4.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1407
12.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8427
70.51***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.3514
-7.78***
γ20.5838
7.92***
γ3-0.4110
-6.22***
γ40.2202
3.43***
γ50.0438
0.68
γ6-0.3238
-3.83***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days