V-Lab
Yutaka Trusty Securities Co ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
1,123.04
1 Week
1,057.38
1 Month
1,045.20
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1457 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7876 | 11.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1457 | -0.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.09 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0835 | 0.09 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9165 | 5.53*** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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