V-Lab
Him Intl Music Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
3,718.20
increased by 2,369.20
1 Week
2,158.21
increased by 809.21
1 Month
1,322.11
decreased by 26.89
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 2012 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.3027 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.0925 | 0.01 |
| βGARCH | 0.9075 | 0.05 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0717 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.3027 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0925 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9075 | 0.05 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0717 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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