V-Lab
Tsh Biopharm Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
8,412.98
decreased by 1,208.35
1 Week
8,027.04
decreased by 1,594.29
1 Month
5,465.36
decreased by 4,155.97
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4795 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2833 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7166 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 3.4264 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -10.0790 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 11.8763 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -7.3541 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 2.6736 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -1.2552 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 1.2860 | 0.71 |
| γ8 | -1.0846 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 1.1705 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | -1.2967 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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