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V-Lab

Cashbox Partyworld Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

15,787.64

increased by 10,480.50

1 Week

5,765.76

increased by 458.62

1 Month

5,254.18

decreased by 52.96

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cashbox Partyworld Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8246
2.33**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4838
5.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3277
5.12***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.1425
-1.70*
γ21.6895
0.87
γ31.9988
1.73*
γ4-3.6406
-4.08***
γ53.2735
3.76***
γ6-1.2761
-1.54
γ70.5965
0.91
γ8-1.0716
-2.00**
γ91.1068
2.62***
γ10-0.7492
-1.27

Persistence:

0.811

Half-life:

3 days