V-Lab
Cashbox Partyworld Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
15,787.64
increased by 10,480.50
1 Week
5,765.76
increased by 458.62
1 Month
5,254.18
decreased by 52.96
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8246 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4838 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3277 | 5.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.1425 | -1.70* |
| γ2 | 1.6895 | 0.87 |
| γ3 | 1.9988 | 1.73* |
| γ4 | -3.6406 | -4.08*** |
| γ5 | 3.2735 | 3.76*** |
| γ6 | -1.2761 | -1.54 |
| γ7 | 0.5965 | 0.91 |
| γ8 | -1.0716 | -2.00** |
| γ9 | 1.1068 | 2.62*** |
| γ10 | -0.7492 | -1.27 |
Persistence:
0.811
Half-life:
3 days
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