V-Lab
Cashbox Partyworld Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12,864.81
increased by 8,460.41
1 Week
6,438.34
increased by 2,033.94
1 Month
6,982.10
increased by 2,577.70
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8237 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4847 | 5.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3250 | 5.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.1331 | -1.68* |
| γ2 | 1.6554 | 0.85 |
| γ3 | 2.0483 | 1.77* |
| γ4 | -3.6644 | -4.10*** |
| γ5 | 3.2436 | 3.70*** |
| γ6 | -1.2331 | -1.47 |
| γ7 | 0.5888 | 0.90 |
| γ8 | -1.0690 | -2.07** |
| γ9 | 1.0408 | 2.55** |
| γ10 | -0.4774 | -0.73 |
Persistence:
0.810
Half-life:
3 days
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