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Cashbox Partyworld Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

12,864.81

increased by 8,460.41

1 Week

6,438.34

increased by 2,033.94

1 Month

6,982.10

increased by 2,577.70

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cashbox Partyworld Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8237
2.32**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4847
5.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3250
5.09***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.1331
-1.68*
γ21.6554
0.85
γ32.0483
1.77*
γ4-3.6644
-4.10***
γ53.2436
3.70***
γ6-1.2331
-1.47
γ70.5888
0.90
γ8-1.0690
-2.07**
γ91.0408
2.55**
γ10-0.4774
-0.73

Persistence:

0.810

Half-life:

3 days